There are two ways to
interpret this chart. The first is a VT
gone horribly wrong...the entry for that pattern would be at
the blue arrow on the CCI, and at the 2 on the price chart.
As you can see, a short at that entry based on the aggressive
WCCI interpretation
of the Vegas Trade would have resulted in a stop-out loss.
At no time would this trade be in the money. I should point
out, that a strict interpretation of WCCI
VT rules would have
kept the conservative VT
trader out of this trade, as the LSMA was never red. However,
the conservative VT
trader will miss many VT
winners, as quite often very symmetrical VTs
will occur and follow through quite nicely without an LSMA confirmation.
In any case, the preferred interpretation of this pattern (I
learned this nuance the hard way) is to go long this pattern
on a ZLR. As I have preached many times in the big room, "Failed
VTs make for powerful
ZLRs." For (aggressive) VT
purists, this pattern was a valid short. However, WCCI
traders should ideally be nimble enough to stop out and reverse
the trade and go long. However, based on this painfully discovered
nuance, I would never have been short this VT
to begin with, regardless of LSMA color, because of the following
reasons: There was an impulse move higher of the CCI from almost
-200 to well above +200 with a strong vertical move from -28
to the HFE climax in a short period of time which signifies
a change in trend. Also note the price compression at the 34
EMA (red when price is below and green when price above). The
moral of the story - and aggressive short of the VT
pattern would have resulted in an instant loss here, but some
careful study of certain CCI movement can keep you out of bad
trades and possibly translate into some powerful winners. In other words, this is an example of how using market context can help to keep you on ther right side of the market.
As I hope you noticed,
I lost money in discovering this nuance. Please remember to
always use stops when trading this and any other futures trading
technique. Losses can and will happen when trading futures instruments
and must be expected and incorporated into your trading plan.