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CCI Trading - failed Vegas Zero Line Reject

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CCI Trading - Failed Vegas Trade Zero Line Reject
 

There are two ways to interpret this chart. The first is a VT gone horribly wrong...the entry for that pattern would be at the blue arrow on the CCI, and at the 2 on the price chart. As you can see, a short at that entry based on the aggressive WCCI interpretation of the Vegas Trade would have resulted in a stop-out loss. At no time would this trade be in the money. I should point out, that a strict interpretation of WCCI VT rules would have kept the conservative VT trader out of this trade, as the LSMA was never red. However, the conservative VT trader will miss many VT winners, as quite often very symmetrical VTs will occur and follow through quite nicely without an LSMA confirmation. In any case, the preferred interpretation of this pattern (I learned this nuance the hard way) is to go long this pattern on a ZLR. As I have preached many times in the big room, "Failed VTs make for powerful ZLRs." For (aggressive) VT purists, this pattern was a valid short. However, WCCI traders should ideally be nimble enough to stop out and reverse the trade and go long. However, based on this painfully discovered nuance, I would never have been short this VT to begin with, regardless of LSMA color, because of the following reasons: There was an impulse move higher of the CCI from almost -200 to well above +200 with a strong vertical move from -28 to the HFE climax in a short period of time which signifies a change in trend. Also note the price compression at the 34 EMA (red when price is below and green when price above). The moral of the story - and aggressive short of the VT pattern would have resulted in an instant loss here, but some careful study of certain CCI movement can keep you out of bad trades and possibly translate into some powerful winners. In other words, this is an example of how using market context can help to keep you on ther right side of the market.

As I hope you noticed, I lost money in discovering this nuance. Please remember to always use stops when trading this and any other futures trading technique. Losses can and will happen when trading futures instruments and must be expected and incorporated into your trading plan.

 

Disclaimer: THERE IS EQUAL OR GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOSS WHILE USING THIS STRATEGY. All information, graphs and depictions represented in this site are OPINIONS and HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS and should be recognized as such and are not solicitations or instructions to execute orders. You shall be responsible for any decision to purchase and/or sell any of the futures products depicted herein. Although, the information herein demonstrates the potential for profitable trades, the potential for loss is just as equal due to unforeseen circumstances and changing market conditions. You must also realize that the indicators and strategies may not work in the future and can be used to your detriment. The amount of profit demonstrated in my trades may be entirely different than yours even if the trades were entered and exited at the same time. Differences in commissions, fees, and internet connectivity can drastically alter your performance in comparison to what is depicted in the charts and could possibly result in a loss.