This
chart contains a pattern within a pattern, which will be a popular
theme on the Chart of the Day.
This
pattern drew my attention due to an unsymmetrical VT.
Why the bad symmetry? For starters, the handle portion of the
VT contains less
than 3 bars. Secondly, the ratio of bars (in terms of width)
between the handle and the cup is distorted. Remember, I prefer
between a 1:2 ratio and 1:3 ratio, and the 2:7.5 shown here
is what I consider to be bad symmetry. Additionally, I prefer
a good "height ratio"...specifically, that the height
of the handle is somewhere around 1/3 the height of the cup,
and also that the handle occurs near the -100 line (this being
a long setup). As you can see, the swing low of the handle formed
somewhere around -50. So there are at least 4 reasons to dismiss
this VT. However,
the divergence between price and CCI here is what I call a DBD,
or Double Bottom with
Divergence. A good risk/reward play here is to buy the Euro
as close to the swing low of price as the previous swing low
after confirmation of the divergence is observed...the advantage
being that you know where you are wrong, a trade somewhere below
the previous low on price. There are usually very good risk/reward
scenarios in this pattern. However, this is an advanced pattern
that requires much discipline and practice to master.
Please
note, this is not a WCCI
pattern, but a madscalper
derivative. By the way, I call the shortable version of this
pattern the DTD (Double TOP with Divergence).
5/6/05
The DBD
is an extremely aggressive pattern and should not be attempted
by traders new to the method. This nuance is very risky and
has a large probabilty of failure, which is why you must use
tight stops and wide targets to enhance your long-term probability
of success. Always, always, always use stops when trading this
and any other futures trading technique. While this pattern
presents a high risk-reward scenario, you can expect many failures
before experiencing a success and therefore must be prepared
for substantial drawdowns when trading this pattern.